The second wave of COVID-19 has been spreading in all European countries in the fall of 20201. In Italy, the daily incidence of confirmed cases rose slowly from 2 to 3 per 100,000 over the month of September, and then accelerated rapidly in October reaching a peak of 58 per 100,000 by November 131. The second wave resulted in about 1.2 COVID-19-related deaths per 100,000 per day at the beginning of December; a value comparable to the first wave (1.35 per 100,000). The mortality rate has then declined to a stable plateau of about 0.8 deaths per 100,000 per day throughout the month of January 20211,2. At the subnational level, high geographical heterogeneity in the impact of the second wave was observed, with over four-fold variations across regions in the standardized mortality rate in October and November 20203.
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The full excess mortality dataset used for this analysis is freely available for download on Github. It is compiled from data originally produced by official statistics agencies or civil registries in each of the jurisdictions mentioned. The full list of sources is also available on our Github repository. 2ff7e9595c
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